Matchup Ranking Key: (Ten Point Scale)
>7.5 Very Good
<2.5 Very Challenging
? on Targets means “injury or lineup contingent”
Heat @ 76ers
Pace: Miami 98.2 (29), Philadelphia 98.4 (26)
Heat Injuries: Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and PJ Tucker are questionable. Kyle Lowry is out.
76ers Injuries: Matisse Thybulle, Isaiah Joe and Joel Embiid are questionable.
Past Games: The Heat blew Philly out of the water in game five at home, winning 120-85 in a game they led by 12 throughout and blew wide open in the fourth. It was a more balanced effort from them offensively, as Jimmy Butler only shot 9-15 from the floor and 3-4 from the line to finish with 23-9-6. Bam Adebayo went back to being down against Embiid after an up game four, ending his night with 12-6 on 4-7 shooting. Tyler Herro also only had 10-2-3 on 4-8 shooting in just 22 minutes, but the rest of their role players really did their jobs. Gabe Vincent turned it on a bit in the second half to end his night with 15-5-2 on 5-7 shooting, Max Strus had his first up game in the series with 19-10-1 on 7-13 shooting, 4-10 from deep, and Victor Oladipo had 13-3-3-2 on 5-10 from the floor, 1-4 from deep. PJ Tucker also had a well-rounded 10-4-7 on 4-6 shooting, including 2-2 from deep. There was just so little that Philly could get going offensively. After taking advantage of switches for his first good playoff game in game four, James Harden was unable to take advantage of Miami not switching, and he ended his night with 14-6-4 on 5-13 shooting. Joel Embiid took a couple of painful blows but Bam Adebayo was able to keep him in check in this one after he nearly scored 25 in game four, and he ended this one with 17-5-2 on 7-12 shooting. Tyrese Maxey fell off hard as well, shooting just 2-10 and ending with 9-3-1. Tobias Harris also had just 12-3-0 on 5-14 shooting as well.
Starting Lineup Matchups:
*PJ was on Harden more in game four, with the rest of the lineup moving up a man.
Matchup Ranking, Heat:
Matchup Ranking, 76ers:
Overall Feel: This one will be closer as Miami is not as likely to be able to pour on 120 points with a late run, but due to some of the defensive adjustments that they made in game four feeling solid, I do think that Miami is able to end the series in Philly tonight. Their offense needs to be there just enough to get the job done. Bam Adebayo still feels like a fade candidate as his 12 points in game four against Embiid were much truer to the success that he has had against the 76ers big man in his career, and the under is alive for the bet as well. The rest of the Miami core might just be fair game though. Tyler Herro might be a tougher sell for me in this one, especially in the books, as he has remained down since game one as Philly has adjusted with greater ball pressure on him. Oladipo playing more next to Herro has not been helpful for his usage either, but I think the minutes being down in game four are a one game outlier at least. Herro’s price is down after a four game skid, rightfully so, and there is potential for him to figure it out on some level despite everything. He likely does not turn in major upside, but the potential is there for Herro in the 6k range if you wish to risk him figuring it out. The three other Heat guards for less might provide better value though. I got lucky with Gabe Vincent in game four, as he made his shots in the second half to break the game open. Minutes in the high 20’s will be there with some rebounds and assists and the value is not poor, but he is not a lock for ten points and some value for this one by any means. Max Strus being able to notch 19 points or especially ten boards are outliers, but there is potential for his props for both of those for lesser at least. He fit on the floor cleaner defensively in game four as he was on Danny Green or Thybulle more, and he finally found his shot from deep on some level. I value him for the lesser cost more than I do Vincent, and with the options limited on that front I might expect him to figure it out on some level again. Victor Oladipo does not come as cheaply as either of those two other guards at this point, but the interest is still there for him as he is the surer bet. His minutes likely climb up a bit too and his offensive role, while it detracts from Herro, will always be there. 15 points feel likely for Oladipo with potential for more, and there is solid value for him for cost still. PJ Tucker was down for his minutes in all but one game of this series and while he was not up in the blowout, he was trending towards that with his defensive role playing even more importance. I still struggle to call PJ a solid overall target for cost and the seven assists are certain to not be there again, but overall Tucker is firmly a decent value for cost who likely does not lose it for you. Jimmy Butler did not play with nearly the same aggression last game as the Heat were more balanced overall, and that should be expected on some level. While his points, rebounding and even assist props are still alive for me, I do not think he ends up dominating the ball in the same way again where he is a good bet to push for over 30 points again like he was in games three and four with their offense struggling, though he very well could be more likely to do so on the road again. There is some interest in Butler on DFS still, but with his price still very much up, he is no lock unless firmly off of Luka Doncic.
My confidence in the Heat is up despite them going on the road for this one because it very much felt like they made the right defensive adjustments in game four. James Harden took advantage of Miami being switch heavy with Embiid back in the mix to create offense, and that was less so the case in game five with PJ sticking on him and fighting through the screens. It is more difficult for him to score inside with that action overall, and he needs to bury threes in order to make Miami pay for sticking with that. While his three prop is alive for me as a result, I think I will not be seeking out his upside despite going back home and I maintain that game four will prove to be the big outlier that it was. Joel Embiid might not be down in as big of a way with a couple of shots derailing his already limited health, but they were fronting him less in game five and Bam got to play him straight up more. The switching on the screens kept Bam in his pocket in a surer way too, which did not help his case. While I am not in on Embiid’s unders in a confident way in this one, bigger scoring upside would surprise me in this one and I will comfortably not seek out his upside here. The biggest X-Factors for the 76ers will be their other two key starters figuring it out. Tyrese Maxey found his game five to be more difficult as he did not get nearly as much Max Strus on him, instead getting plus defenders with some consistency. While he is more alive for me for DFS than Tobias, I think he is less likely to be the bet for over 20 or be a solid target for me in this one. His ability to create with explosion with the ball is less there with Harden and Embiid dominating actions more, and his ability to do so with regularity factors less with Strus on him less. Tobias also struggles with a lesser overall role and I think that he remains more down with Jimmy Butler on him more and he is a higher end fade on DFS as he remains in the 7k range. Danny Green will carry more overall appeal for this one if Thybulle is ruled out along with Georges Niang, but it would still not make either a solid overall target either. All in all, I expect Philly’s offensive production to lag behind again tonight, and it will end their season. There is not an over outside of the Harden threes for them that I will like tonight as it feels like Miami figured out the best way to defend them after taking a couple of L’s.
Weak Targets: Jimmy Butler, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo
Neutral: Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, PJ Tucker, Danny Green? Tyrese Maxey, James Harden
Fade: Bam Adebayo, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid
Line: Heat +2 feels solid to be as I think they figured something out for real last game. Under 207 is the lean because I trust them because of the belief that their defense will be there, and their offense likely takes a healthy dip as well.