Matchup Ranking Key: (Ten Point Scale)
>7.5 Very Good
<2.5 Very Challenging
? on Targets means “injury or lineup contingent”
Grizzlies @ Warriors
Pace: Memphis 103.1 (3), Golden State 100.7 (14)
Grizzlies Injuries: Ja Morant, Killian Tillie and Santi Aldama are out.
Warriors Injuries: Otto Porter is questionable. Andre Iguodala, James Wiseman and Gary Payton are out.
Past Games: Game five in Memphis was a shocker, as the Grizzlies poured it on early and often to seal a 134-95 win. The Grizzlies led by 27 at half and by 42 after three and this one was never a real contest. Almost everyone on their team shot 50% or better in the win too, and their starters only needed to play about 24 minutes apiece. Tyus Jones had 21-3-9-2 on 8-12 shooting from the field and 4-7 from deep to stay sharp. Dillon Brooks had his first semi-efficient game of the series as well, shooting 5-13 and finishing with 12-4-4-1. Desmond Bane had his first good game of the series too, going 6-12 from the field and 4-6 from deep to chip in 21-1-2. Jaren Jackson might have been the best Grizzly, shooting 6-10 from the field, 4-6 from deep and 5-6 from the line to have 21-8-3-1-2 in just 25 minutes. Steven Adams had 7-13-3 on 2-7 shooting as well while De’Anthony Melton and Ziaire Williams were ahead of Kyle Anderson in minutes off of the bench to buck that trend too. The only Warriors who really had it going were Jonthan Kuminga and Klay Thompson. Kuminga shot 7-16 in the start, posting 17-3-2. Klay shot 7-12 from the field and 3-6 from deep to have 19-3-1 in 25 minutes. Stephen Curry was limited to 14-3-4 on 4-10 shooting and Jordan Poole 3-1-3 on 1-6 shooting. Andrew Wiggins also had 5-1 in his first down game of the series, playing only 19 minutes and shooting only six times and Draymond ended up with a 5-7-5 line as well.
Starting Lineup Matchups:
Matchup Ranking, Grizzlies:
Matchup Ranking, Warriors:
Overall Feel: Well I am a fool for saying that the Warriors should be able to win their last two games with confidence. I was right for screaming that the Grizzlies could not score over 100 in this matchup prior to game four as their defense made it an extremely close game, and their defense showed up in a big way in game five as they just could not miss. Apparently, this team is more than capable of scoring over 100 without Ja. It will be a lot more difficult for them going back to the Bay, but with all of the momentum in the world at their backs following an extremely decisive win, I will not count them or their offense out for this one. There are a number of factors that need to be duplicated for them to clear 100 points, but I should not count them out in doing so. Tyus Jones has been more aggressive with Ja out in the last two games than he was in the regular season, shooting roughly every 1.5 minutes. I buy that trend continuing for the most part, and he remains a really good value as all three of his major props are over candidates as he can clear 40 minutes in a more competitive game. The odds of me taking Tyus in DFS, even with his price up, are strong. Memphis also needs good offense from their wings in a big way again as well. It was extremely encouraging to see Desmond Bane put it together offensively last game and with his price down, he is a DFS option if you buy that continuing. I do not want in on his points prop though, and with his non-scoring stats still lesser than Dillon Brooks’, I might still lean to Brooks between them on DFS. Brooks getting more Wiggins on the wing means that his point prop is still not alive, but with more shots likely coming from him than Bane, they are likely close in that regard. His rebounding I think is slightly more there, and he covered his assist prop last game in only 24 minutes as he is doing actual creating off of the dribble at the moment. The assist prop is alive for him here again, and he will be an option. Jaren Jackson remains the top Grizzly overall though, even with Steven Adams taking rebounds from him. The Kuminga/Otto time on him favors his offense a good deal, and it helps that he is getting the post up looks in addition to the jumpers. The defensive stats on top of the better matchups and usage help JJJ a good deal, and his points prop is alive and well for this coming game. Steven Adams will remain a DK target even if he is fairly priced on FanDuel. He grabbed six offensive rebounds in short order last game to help them push the lead even further, and while I maintain that 6-10-2-1 is about what should be expected from him, if his boards can remain up while he extends possessions then that is key for this team overall. The bench targets are a bit more difficult. De’Anthony Melton got some time with Tyus, but not a lot as he was still primarily serving as the backup PG and playing opposite of him. I think that in a closer game with Tyus’ minutes up, Melton is not worth it for this one and he goes back to being behind Kyle Anderson and Ziaire Williams on the wing. Brandon Clarke remains a sure fade. Neither of Anderson or Williams will be strong plays for value, but with 20 minutes realistically in play for both, they are neutral plays who very well won’t lose it for you either.
The Warriors got punched in the mouth again, and again, and again last game. It is not great news for the Kings that their offense has fallen apart completely with Steve Kerr out and Mike Brown filling in for the last two games, and I maintain that he is very much not a better move from Coach Luke and is likely a step backwards. But I digress, and it was not good to see their defense completely fall apart last game too. They have played better at home in these playoffs naturally and they should still be favored to win this game, but there are leaks and real causes for concerns after game five absolutely could not have gone any worse. Steve Kerr is unlikely for tonight’s game and that is a cause for concern still, for what that is worth at the end of this. They need to find a way to get this right, and I am not sure who really has value for them at this point. Draymond Green has not had upside at any point in this series and while his price is down, there is not value there for him or any of his props for this coming game in my eyes. Andrew Wiggins doesn’t have the same rebounding opportunities with more time on the wing, though if Otto Porter is out then he likely plays a bit more PF minutes and that prop is at least alive again. His offense falling back was natural after he had been consistent in this series, but I still think that he is a neutral play for below 6k as I have no real faith in his points coming all the way back up again. Jordan Poole has completely fallen back in the last two games and while he is sure for regression after he could not have been worse in game five, I might struggle to pay 7k for him again or trust any of his props overall. Klay putting together a real offensive game was encouraging and while his prop is not fully alive for his points, the boards one still could be and him for less is a stronger neutral for me in this one than Poole for more is as Ja going out and better defense on Poole has made him fall back. Stephen Curry has been a bit worse for the wear with Tyus on him more, as he needed a big fourth quarter in game four to have a good one and he struggled last game. I think Curry comes out in this one with more aggression and there is value in his major props as a result, and I will consider him on DFS as he needs to be able to step up in this one. The strongest play might just be Jonathan Kuminga for value, but especially if Otto Porter is ruled out as a game time call. Porter I struggle to want as a value for below 100%, but the Grizzlies are giving Kuminga cleaner looks as JJJ protects the paint more than focusing on him, and I think there is some sure light appeal if 24 minutes are in play for the rookie. Neither of Damion Lee or Nemanja Bjelica stand out as values near the min if Porter is ruled out, but there will be a chance for them to fly there if that is the case as well.
Strong Targets: Tyus Jones
Weak Targets: Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Stephen Curry, Jonathan Kuminga?
Neutral: Kyle Anderson, Ziaire Williams, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole
Fade: De’Anthony Melton, Brandon Clarke
Line: Grizzlies +8 has appeal. While I still fully by the Warriors winning at home in this one, I think it should be a closer game after Memphis has made it the case and then some without Ja in the last two. The total of 218 also feels right to me overall.