Assuming that Isaiah Thomas’s increased minute limit wasn’t just the result of playing the Warriors and he will get 28 minutes of run tonight. Derrick Rose’s return isn’t really a huge threat, so I’ll take IT chucking below 6k in a good matchup.
Chris Paul will make Jeff Teague’s day difficult, but that will probably leave James Harden and Eric Gordon to check Jimmy Butler tonight. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will start at SF and get Wiggins in all likelihood. I’ll take Butler tonight in a good matchup in a fast paced game.
Smart has received point guard starts when Kyrie Irving has been out so far this season. Those have been some of Smart’s most productive games, as the additional playmaking responsibilities provide a boom for his scoring and assist stats. He’s a solid value tonight at $5,100.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Mbah a Moute and PJ Tucker will play a lot of forward minutes with two of them currently serving suspensions. The veteran Luc is far from an explosive player, but he will beat his near minimum value in 30 + minutes of play.
I believe in the “All-Star Statement game”. I’ve bought into Jimmy Butler to some degree for it, and I’m looking at Embiid for the same reasons. He’s been criticized for missing games and will be looking to prove that he belongs on this All-Star game with standout performances in the coming weeks. The 76ers center will be aided by the absence of JJ Redick, which will cause his usage right to rise as well. Boston couldn’t slow Anthony Davis the other night and may not be able to check Embiid if he gets hot in the same way.
TJ McConnell is too cheap for $4,400. Simple as that. While Bayless will draw the start, TJ has proven to be a stronger source of points than him thus far this season. McConnell is a safe bet to beat value in 32+ minutes of run tonight.
Ryan Anderson will be playing more in the thin Rockets rotation, which bodes well for him. Additionally, the forwards he will be splitting time with-Tucker and Mbah a Moute- are low usage players who cause the usage of those around them to rise. So I’ll take the scoring forward on the Rockets for these next couple of games as well.
Speaking of All-Star statement games… Damian Lillard made some public comments about being an All-Star snub yesterday. It was along the gist of “large markets still matter” and “it’s too bad I’m the one who gets snubbed”. So it very clearly appears as if Lillard wants to make a statement tonight. And with Oladipo on McCollum and Collison on Lilllard for much of this fast paced game, it’s a good spot to make one.